Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections
Published in Marketing Science, 2013
This paper investigates the effects of television advertising in presidential elections. Using data from the 2000 and 2004 presidential campaigns, we estimate a structural model of voter behavior that accounts for the dynamic and competitive nature of political advertising. The model allows us to distinguish between the persuasive effects of advertising (changing voter preferences) and the informational effects (increasing voter awareness). We find that advertising has a significant effect on vote shares, primarily by influencing undecided voters. The results also suggest that the effectiveness of advertising varies over the course of the campaign and across different types of ads. Counterfactual simulations show that optimal advertising strategies can have a meaningful impact on election outcomes.
Recommended citation: Gordon, B. R. & Hartmann, W. (2013). "Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections." Marketing Science. 32(1), 19-35.
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