Disentangling Ad Tone Effects on Voter Turnout and Candidate Choice in Presidential Elections
Published in Management Science, 2023
A long-standing debate in political science concerns the effects of negative advertising. Does it mobilize or demobilize the electorate? Does it persuade undecided voters or merely reinforce existing preferences? We address these questions by developing and estimating a model of voter behavior that distinguishes between the effects of advertising tone on turnout and on candidate choice. The model is estimated using detailed data on television advertising and voting behavior from the 2000–2016 U.S. presidential elections. We find that negative advertising has a significant mobilization effect, increasing turnout among a candidate’s supporters. In contrast, positive advertising is more effective at persuading undecided voters. We also find that the effects of advertising tone vary with the competitiveness of the election and the characteristics of the voters. Our results have important implications for understanding the role of advertising in modern political campaigns.
Recommended citation: Gordon, B. R., Lovett, M. J., Luo, B., & Reeder, J. C. (2023). "Disentangling Ad Tone Effects on Voter Turnout and Candidate Choice in Presidential Elections." Management Science. 69(1), 220-243.
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